West Africa Microfinance
Credit Risk Scorecard
Basel II-compliant scorecard built on 12,000 synthetic microfinance loans across 5 West African countries. Weight of Evidence feature selection, logistic regression with points conversion, validated with Gini, KS statistic, and Population Stability Index.
12,000Loan Records
13.3%Default Rate
$9.4MPortfolio Size
$786Avg Loan
0.268Gini (Test)
0.212KS Stat (Test)
Feature Selection
Information Value (IV)
IV measures the predictive power of each feature. Features with IV > 0.02 are selected for the scorecard. Strong predictors (IV > 0.3) may indicate over-fitting.
Strong (>0.3) Medium (0.1-0.3) Weak (0.02-0.1)
Scorecard
Logistic Regression Coefficients
Scorecard Parameters
Target Score600
Target Odds50:1
PDO20
Factor28.8539
Offset487.1229
Intercept-1.927315
Feature Coefficients
dti_ratio0.0000
previous_defaults-0.8506
dpd_history_days-0.4248
group_lending-1.0060
loan_amount_usd0.0000
has_collateral-0.9948
years_in_business-0.9254
loan_term_months-1.0720
previous_loans-0.4077
interest_rate_pct0.0000
Model Validation
Gini, KS, ROC, PSI
0.286Train Gini
0.268Test Gini
0.212Test KS
0.0020PSI (Stable)
ROC Curve
KS Curve
Score Analysis
Score Distribution by Band
Portfolio
Country and Sector Analysis
Default Rate by Country
Default Rate by Sector
Stress Testing
Economic Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Income Shock | Stressed PD | Expected Loss | Capital Required | Loss Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 0% | 13.3% | $690,953.07 | $1,036,429.61 | 7.33% |
| Mild Stress | -10% | 17.3% | $898,238.99 | $1,347,358.49 | 9.53% |
| Severe Stress | -25% | 24.0% | $1,243,715.53 | $1,865,573.3 | 13.19% |
| Extreme | -40% | 33.3% | $1,727,382.68 | $2,591,074.02 | 18.32% |
Baseline: Current economic conditions
Mild Stress: Moderate slowdown: 10% income drop, 30% rise in defaults
Severe Stress: Regional crisis: 25% income drop, currency devaluation, crop failure
Extreme: Pandemic-scale disruption: 40% income drop, supply chain collapse